Numbers don't lie. As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the number of ATM machines such as deposit and withdrawal machines in China has decreased to 725800 units, a sharp decline of over 36% from the historical peak of 1.1286 million units in the third quarter of 2018. Over the past five years, there has been a net decrease of 280400 units, with an average of 154 devices disappearing from the streets every day. At the same time, the mobile payment business will reach 231.464 billion transactions and a total amount of 57.197 trillion yuan in 2025. Scanning codes and facial recognition have covered the vast majority of high-frequency scenarios such as catering, transportation, and retail.

Behind this set of data is a deep logic of the industry shifting from "volume expansion" to "precise survival".

In the past decade, the core logic of banks deploying self-service devices has been "wide coverage and high diversion", with ATM diversion rate as the assessment indicator. Nowadays, this indicator has long been abolished, and smart counters and mobile banking have taken over the vast majority of business scenarios that originally belonged to all-in-one machines. The daily average transaction volume of a single device dropped sharply from 180 in 2019 to 42 in 2024, and some machines even had zero transactions for a long time. The procurement cost of a mid end deposit and withdrawal all-in-one machine is about 80000 yuan, combined with rigid expenses such as site, escort, and cleaning, resulting in an average annual operation and maintenance cost of over 20000 yuan. The input-output ratio is severely inverted, and it is a rational choice for banks to actively "slim down".

But retreat does not mean extinction. The real variable in the industry lies in role reengineering: devices are evolving from simple cash deposit and withdrawal tools to comprehensive service terminals empowered by AI, covering all scenarios, and integrating multiple functions. The functional boundaries of facial recognition withdrawal, digital RMB exchange, social security inquiry, and life payment continue to expand. The core user groups are also clear: the urgent need for cash transactions in rural areas, the digital divide among urban elderly groups, the dependence on physical cards of foreign visitors to China, and the cash turnover needs of small and micro merchants

Regulatory authorities also send clear signals. The "Regulations on RMB Cash Receipt and Payment and Services" jointly issued by the central bank and other departments require banks to ensure that the functions and quantity of cash self-service machines meet customer needs, especially for the elderly, disabled, and overseas people to provide convenience. Under the policy support, all-in-one machines will not return to zero, but will inevitably move towards a new pattern of "fewer but more refined".