The industry is undergoing the most intense round of reshuffling, but the ultimate outcome of the reshuffling is not "zero elimination", but "redefinition".

From the supply side, traditional equipment manufacturers have been forced to transform. Taking representative enterprises in the industry as an example, ATM related revenue has shrunk from hundreds of millions of yuan to millions of yuan, and the production of cash equipment has decreased by more than 50% year-on-year. The logic of industry competition has shifted from price games to comprehensive value competition, and manufacturers without AI algorithms, secure encryption, and domestic platform capabilities are being eliminated. Top domestic manufacturers occupy over 75% of the market share, and technological barriers continue to rise.

From the demand side, policy is the greatest certainty. The "Regulations on RMB Cash Receipt and Payment and Services" clearly require banks to ensure the coverage of cash self-service machines, especially for the elderly, disabled, and overseas individuals, and to deploy them reasonably. This means that while the total number of all-in-one machines is shrinking, the functional density must be increased - not by reducing the number of units, but by each unit carrying more services.

From the perspective of layout, the logic of "from laying out points to arranging formations" has become a consensus in the industry. The city adopts a combination of "flagship outlets+light outlets+self-service terminals", while the county relies on central outlets and cooperates with inclusive service stations to extend coverage. The function of the branch has shifted from pursuing full functionality to subtracting based on regional customer groups, reducing cash counters, and increasing the configuration of intelligent devices.

From a technical perspective, the IT market size of the banking industry will exceed 250 billion yuan by 2025, of which 30% will be used for intelligent upgrading of terminal devices. Biometric recognition, blockchain, and remote operation and maintenance of the Internet of Things have become standard equipment. The central bank's "Financial Technology Development Plan" requires that the digital coverage rate of banking business exceed 90% by 2025, with terminal intelligence as the core indicator.

In the next five years, the deposit and withdrawal all-in-one machine industry will present a clear judgment: the total volume will continue to decline, but the value of individual machines will continue to rise. Each surviving device is an intelligent node that precisely serves a specific group of people. This is not decline, this is evolution.